How to Bet the Triple Crown

Winning the Triple Crown is seen as racing’s greatest achievement and with that, bettors as much as trainers and jockeys more and more want their slice of the action.

The series is massive and in recent years wagering on the win/place/show and other main pools on the Kentucky Derby alone has climbed over $100 million with millions more wagered on futures and exotics such as the Pick 4, Pick 6 and others.

Although these amounts take a slight downturn for the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, the pools are still into the tens of millions of dollars and as these races become more popular around the world sportsbooks across the globe are also reporting huge betting turnover on the Triple Crown races.

There is no science behind betting the Triple Crown, we all have different methods for handicapping horses and we wager based on different whims but there are a few pointers that can help you along and here we seek to let you in on what we know.

What Are the Triple Crown Races?

The three races that make up the American Triple Crown are run at different race tracks over different distances and all within five weeks making it one of the hardest series to win for man and horse. The constant factors linking all three races are that they are all run on dirt surfaces and all are open only to three-year-old thoroughbreds.

Kentucky Derby

The first, most prestigious, most competitive and most valuable of the Triple Crown races, as of 2019 the Kentucky Derby has a purse of $3million and despite the relatively big safety limit of 20 runners places are always at a premium in what is a race that stands in its own right as one of the most important on the world circuit.

Runners have to accrue points in specific races known collectively as the Road to the Kentucky Derby to gain a spot in the race, a spectacle that takes place in front of some 150,000 people at Churchill Downs, Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

The race is run over 1¼ miles, is known colloquially as the Run for the Roses and as the first in this series always keeps hopes alive that we may see another Triple Crown star such as Affirmed or Secretariat.

Preakness Stakes

The roadshow moves on to the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland just two weeks after the Kentucky Derby and this time the runners are asked to go down to 1 3/16 miles to fight for the $1.5million purse.

The Preakness is known as the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans and as the middle leg of the series keeps the buzz alive that we may see another Triple Crown hero, at least until the race is run.

Belmont Stakes

Three weeks after the Preakness on the second Saturday in June, the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes brings the Triple Crown to an end an in brutal fashion for three-year-olds who are used to showing a little speed.

The 1½ mile distance on “Big Sandy”, the widest and deepest dirt track around, really tests these thoroughbreds out and many a Kentucky Derby-Preakness double winner has seen their Triple Crown story end dramatically at the final hurdle right here.

Belmont Park in Elmont, New York is the scene for the final leg known appropriately as the Test of the Champion and sees the winner bedecked in a blanket of carnations.

Remember, They’re Only Races!

These three Triple Crown races are each fantastic spectacles in their own right and as a series they promote the sport magnificently around North America and beyond. But, from a wagering perspective, a key thing to remember is that all the usual rules apply and the basic principles remain the same.

Keep your selections simple and follow the same rules you would for any other stakes race; what chance does your horse have of winning and is it good value for money in the betting markets?

One thing that kills bettors when it comes to Triple Crown races is letting the prestige of the events get to them with the major letdown being too many people following apparent Triple Crown trends.

Triple Crown Trends

Of course it is worth us mentioning some of the better known trends surrounding these races and many are listed online but as a wise man once said; we can prove just about anything with statistics, except the truth!

Trends are there to be shattered and horse racing, despite having its roots hundreds of years ago, is a sport of constant change with training techniques and veterinary care getting better all the time as well as some trends being based on samples that are not deep enough to give us a proper picture overall.

That said it’s wise to take a look at some well known Triple Crown trends before analysing how reliable they are, or could be:

Favorites Winning in the Kentucky Derby

The last six Kentucky Derby odds favorites have won the Derby, so with the benefit of hindsight the biggest race in America has been shockingly easy to get a profit from for those wagering in the win pool.

This has been "blamed" on the points system, being that there is little improvement left to come from these horses by the time they get to Churchill Downs as they have had to put it all in to win valuable Grade 1 races along the way to guarantee their place in the field, such as in the Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial or the Florida Derby.

However, this sort of run cannot continue indefinitely so while it is probably wise in the current era to keep the better fancied horses close to you when making your choices, there will be plenty of Kentucky Derby’s to come in which the best horse in the race is drawn in a wide gate, doesn’t want 1¼ miles or simply has bad luck in running.

Preakness Losers Don’t Win at Belmont

It goes without saying that Preakness Stakes winners have indeed won the Belmont Stakes, hence our thirteen Triple Crown champions, but by then their sheer class and determination has got them to the line along with the important factor that some candidates may have withdrawn to pursue other targets.

This trend definitely has some mileage in it though, with Victory Gallop back in 1998 the last horse who was beaten in the Preakness before going on to win the Belmont which brings another trend to mind…

Fresh Horses Win the Belmont Stakes

Whether it’s because of the 1½ mile distance, the deep dirt or because they are tired having faced the Road to the Kentucky Derby races as well as the first two legs of this series and all by mid-May, those coming through the traditional route often struggle in New York leaving the way clear for a fresher horse to take the title.

Four of the last 5 non-Triple Crown winners to have taken the Belmont Stakes ran in the Kentucky Derby but crucially NOT in the Preakness Stakes. The other one was making his Grade 1 debut and all of them ran either 3 or 4 times before New York, two of them having only made their racecourse debut during that calendar year.

This tells us that, even though they are likely to have been beaten in Louisville, the Belmont winner is very likely to have run in the Kentucky Derby but taking in the Preakness along the way massively dulls their chances of winning. This seems like a reliable trend.

Bob Baffert Always Wins!

Baffert has had some amazing stakes success in recent years and is responsible for the last two Triple Crown winners, American Pharoah and Justify, and because of their success he has trained 6 of the 12 Triple Crown race winners between 2015 and 2018.

That sounds huge, and it is, but those six wins were shared obviously between his two Triple Crown winners and so he actually did not win any other individual Triple Crown race in the intervening years with any other horse.

Trainers, even those as good as Baffert, just put that bit of polish on a horse’s performance and get the extra few percent out of them but they have to have the best, well-bred horses to train in the first place to go to war with and while Baffert does indeed get some brilliant thoroughbreds, so do many other handlers.

So, while his success is huge he is only one trainer among many and we shouldn’t give too much weight to a horse trained by the great man, instead judging each of them on their own merits.

The Preakness Top 3 Come from the Kentucky Derby

While the horses are fully fit but not over the top in terms of energy reserves and the distances are similar, it’s hardly a surprise that a lot of the horses finishing in prominent positions in Maryland all contested the Kentucky Derby two weeks earlier.

But does this trend really stack up? It seems on reflection that the results are polarized. Checking the last five years of top 3 finishers in the Preakness, i.e. 15 horses in total, 8 of them ran in the Derby and 7 did not.

Of those eight, 5 of them finished in the first two so the stat seems to be that you either want a top two finisher from Kentucky or one that didn’t run there at all and comes to the Preakness fresh.

One thing though; the seven horses who didn’t run in Kentucky produced 1 winner, 2 seconds and 4 thirds while Kentucky Derby winners and runners-up have produced four of the last 5 Preakness winners so for win pool purposes, stick with the Churchill Downs runners.

Favorites Don’t Win the Belmont Stakes

This one is kind of a reliable trend, but it goes hand-in-hand with the fact that the race is generally a graveyard for Triple Crown challengers.

Only 13 horses have ever won all three races so by the time the Belmont comes around we either have new challengers, or we have tired horses who just cannot see out three victories in such tough conditions.

In the ten years 2009-2018 inclusive, only 2 Belmont odds favorites won the race and they were both exceptional Triple Crown winners while most of the other winners went off at double-digit odds.

Betting the Horse Racing Triple Crown – a Guide

As with any individual stakes race or series of races, there is no scientific way of betting the events in order to guarantee wagering success.

There are however a few things you should keep in mind when betting the Triple Crown to keep yourself within the right lines and just give yourself the best chance of gaining a win or two:

Select Your Race Trends Carefully

Only use any trends you discover, including the ones listed above, as a loose guide as just because something has happened in the past with Triple Crown horses, it doesn’t mean it will happen again.

Playing Exactas and Trifectas etc and boxing bets in the Preakness regarding fresh horses and the top two from the Derby could be wise, while the Win pool is the one to concentrate on regarding fresh horses in the Belmont as the payoffs could be huge.

Use Speed Ratings to Your Advantage

Getting a good gate position given the 20-runner field and having strong early speed are important factors in the Kentucky Derby, while early speed can also be important in the Belmont Stakes in order for runners to get to the front and dictate the pace which often proves fruitful.

You can check out our guide on using speed to handicap horses to find out a little more about how this all works, as on dirt tracks it can be a crucial tool and something you shouldn’t be simply guessing at.

Don’t Let the Occasion Get To You

True, the Triple Crown races are huge events and as much attention is given to what people are wearing, what they are drinking, what they are signing and which celebrities are in attendance as is given to the horses but while it all makes for great TV, your general wagering principles shouldn’t leave you at this time.

If you feel your horse is good enough to win then you must trust yours and its ability. Ignore the hype, the trends, the betting markets and those around you who may seek to put you off when they disagree with your selection. If you have a bet in mind which has been carefully researched and thoroughly thought out – go with it.

Stick with TVG

Last but certainly not least, remember you can access all the information you need about the Triple Crown right here where you would expect it at TVG.

As we approach post time in all three races our experts will be on hand to offer you’re their advice and bring you great coverage of the events.

Before that, you can check out our dedicated pages on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes where you’ll find a detailed history of the events, track information, latest odds and the current contenders for all three amazing Triple Crown races.

If you’re looking to hone your skills first, our "how to bet on horse racing" guide is for you.